1983 or 1945 ..A walk over or shades of February 1974...The Black Swans arrive..

1983 or 1945 ..A walk over or shades of February 1974...The Black Swans arrive..

We are about to see the end of the Union and the end of UKIP. It is a supreme irony, a Weberian unintended consequence consequence and a regal Black Swan event The SNAP will sweep the board n Scotland and a referendum for independence will happen next year.Theresa May can not give herself a chance for a mandate without granting the Scots the same chance. In Northern Ireland SF will make gains and Ireland will approach reunification. UKIP is no longer necessary the Tory Party promises Grammar Schools and a hard Brexit. It makes this election a new referendum , a new mandate will be settled and the choices become once more about an inward or outward looking approach.

UKIP will dissolve into the fruitcakes it has always been. The alt right golden boys like Benjamin Mackenzie and Darren Bronham Niccols will naturally migrate to the Tory party. Farage will become a presenter for Fox News and Nuttal will fade into obscurity. A new right hegemony is being formed..... there will be no boundary changes and the invitations into Tory election fraud will become pointless. However will Nigel be tempted back to Thanet as the hapless Nuttal fades into his Walter Mitty like fantasies . There is a deadly mixture of narcissism , greed and notion rotting it from within. The Conservative party is an organised conspiracy aimed at gaining power. it is the supreme political predator and is eating UKIP alive....

However i must warn you all that Ted Heath saw the same in February 74 and saw his majority lost. In is possible that other black swans might appear. It is quite possible that Jeremy Corbyn will perform well in debate and get his message home . It is possible that the Liberal Democrats will surge after good local election results and take 40 conservative seats. It may be that a pact emerges among remainers that link social justice, environmental policies and electoral reform. There are many possibilities , opinion polls have failed repeatedly to predict accurately both Brexit, Trump and the last general election. There is everything to play for and while at present the election appears to reassemble 1983 it could equally become 1923 or 1945. Of course a thermo Nuclear bomb above Hawaii might see a massive movement to the right with Trump taking Erdogan like powers. Whatever happens we live in an uncertain world where uncertainties abound. Perhaps prediction is oointless . Black Swans are here in flocks obscuring the political horizon. However i will be here blogging away, commenting whatever the result.in a post modern fascism i will be a point of resistance , in a left wing society a sign post . As Camus said " I rebel therefore i exist " lets us draw ourselves up and face the future....It matters ..Sartre said that every generation must fight for its rights....It's time to begin that struggle ....Bring it on.......

A new paradigm is approaching . It's methods will be new and it's perceptions are still forming. History is not certain it is made in each generation . However the next eight weeks finds us once more on an edge. Marx warned us long ago that the future would either be Socialism or Barbarism ...It's going to be challenging and exciting and frightening but as they say where there is fear there is power.....