Batley and Spen, pot noodles and the decline of Tolerance..the legacy of Brexit....

It is no accident that the Batley and Spen by election has brought out the worst. Two of the candidates are using descriptions that strongly ressemble the words shouted by the assaialnt and killer of Jo Cox. One has even empassised it by including an exclamation mark. How has it come to this. The national Front and the English democrats have crawled out of the woodwork using their hatefull bile and accusations to make capital out of this womens murder. The by election will occur on October 20.

Richard Charles Edmonds - National Front

David Furness - British National Party Local People

Therese Hirst - English Democrats: ‘Putting England First!’

In Wales we have seen the use of mid Wales by britain First to set up a training camp and we have seen vists to South Wales of its leadership. However the thing that gives me a really good belly laugh is the fact that the boys of britain First were fed by good old fashioned "British" real pot noddles.

I have included a report by Hope not Hate on how we have changed Its sad and must cause us all to reflect

How Brexit changed us

Britain is now a more polarised, divided and anxious country and the divisions are likely to grow over the next few years. Nick Lowlesreflects on how Brexit has changed the political situation. The decision to leave the European Union has fundamentally changed Britain. We have a new Prime Minister, there are leadership elections in both the Labour Party and UKIP and we could be about to see a new and very well funded nationalist party. Economically, the pound has slumped, confidence has evaporated and house prices, in London at least, stagnated. And socially, we have seen a huge spike in racist attacks and uncertainty about amongst the three million EU nationals living in this country. Britain is in a nervous state and it has every right to be. To understand how the Referendum campaign and the decision to leave the EU have changed opinions, HOPE not hate commissioned another Fear and HOPE report. In the week after the Referendum, the polling organisation Populus asked 4,035 people in England a total of 84 questions about their attitudes to race, identity, multiculturalism and their thoughts on the EU Referendum itself.

Like our previous Fear and HOPE reports, we divided the population into six identity tribes, depending on their attitudes to immigration, multiculturalism, cohesion and violence. The two groups most open to immigration and supportive of multiculturalism were the Confident multiculturalists (22% of the population) and Mainstream Liberals (16%), while the two most hostile were Active Enmity (7%) and Latent Hostiles (13%). English population by segment As the table on the right shows, there has been a growth in the two liberal groups since February’s 2016 Fear and HOPEreport. I will explain the reason for this later in the article. The two groups in the middle are theCulturally Concerned (16%), slightly older, more affluent voters who have cultural concerns around immigration and integration, and Immigrant ambivalence (26%), who are generally ok about immigration but worried about further immigration because of their economic anxieties. With many of the questions the same as we asked in February’s 2016 Fear & HOPE report, we were able to see if and how the views of the English had changed as a result of the Referendum and its outcome. The polling found England has become a more polarised society as a result of the Referendum. 63% of respondents believe Britain is more divided as a result of the vote and there has been an increase in the numbers of people who believe there are tensions between different communities at a local and national level. Just 12% of people disagreed. Is Britain more divided as a result of the referendum When asked about community tensions, 62% of people agreed with the statement that there was rising tension between ethnic groups, whilst 38% of people thought groups got on well together. The divided nation is also reflected in how we voted in the Referendum, with those more comfortable with immigration and a multicultural society generally voting to Remain, whilst those most opposed voting overwhelmingly to Leave. How segments voted in EU Referendum There were also diverging views on the Referendum campaign itself. People who voted to Remain in the EU overwhelming believed the Leave campaign ran a racist and anti-immigrant campaign. Leave voters, unsurprisingly, had quite the opposite view. Leave voters, though, believed strongly that the Remain campaign exaggerated the negative economic consequences of leaving the EU, whilst Remain voters were more evenly split. Despite these obvious and widening divisions in English society, the public as a whole appears to have adopted more positive views to immigration and a multicultural society. Our 2016 Fear and HOPE report shows a significant shift in opinion towards the two tribes that are more positive to immigration and multiculturalism – up from 24% in 2011 to 32% in February 2016. Professor Rob Ford and I attribute this to a growing confidence in the economy easing some of the economic anxieties and rapidly changing demographics and attitudes among young people. The new poll seems to suggest a continuation of the movement, with now the two most liberal tribes making up 38% of society. At the same time, the two most hostile groups have shrunk from 24% to 21%. The Culturally Concerned group has shrunk from 24% to 16%, while the Identity Ambivalents (who have the economic concerns over immigration) has grown from 20% to 26%. Political affiliation by segment

A few things seem to have happened. The Referendum result has pleased those who voted for the UK to leave the EU and, as a result, they are arguably less angry than they were a few months ago and certainly less angry than they would have been if the vote had been to remain in the EU.

Paradoxically, the two most liberal tribes are overwhelmingly furious with the tone of the Referendum campaign and the result. These factors have reinforced and hardened their own support for immigration and multiculturalism and this is reflected in even stronger views on these issues in our poll. Horrified at the result and the increase in racist incidents, the liberal 48% are now the angry outsiders. However, there is perhaps a third explanation for the shift and that is the death of Jo Cox. Her murder, a week before the Referendum vote shocked the country and a sudden reluctance to air strong anti-immigrant views appears to be partly responsible for the sudden reversal in the opinion polls, many of which showed strong Leave leads becoming significant Remain leads in the final few days.

Perhaps, our pollsters have argued, it suddenly become socially unacceptable for some in the Culturally Concerned tribe to publicly articulate views that might have motivated Jo Cox’s killer. This reasoning might explain why fewer people who voted Leave in the Referendum cited stopping or limiting immigration as their primary reason for voting how they did than when similar questions were asked by pollsters before Jo Cox’s murder.

According to our poll, 45% of those voting to leave the EU cited sovereignty over decision-making as their primary reason, with 35% citing controlling immigration. Amongst the Culturally Concerned tribe, the gap was even bigger, with 51% choosing sovereignty over 27% stating immigration. Most important reason to vote leave Most important reason to vote leave While it would be totally wrong to suggest that everyone voting to leave the EU did so just because of immigration or are indeed are racist, it would seem clear that Jo Cox’s death made some people more reluctant to state anti-immigrant views. The optimistic pessimists The polarisation in society following the Referendum vote is reflected in attitudes about the future. Those voting for the UK to Remain are pessimistic about the economic wellbeing of the country, while those who voted Leave are suddenly super-optimistic. The polling shows a startling turnaround in attitudes. Expectation of national economic circumstances Expectation of national economic circumstances In our February Fear and HOPE survey, 69% of our Latent Hostile tribe and 68% of the Active Enmity tribe felt pessimistic about the future. Now, 55% of Latent Hostiles think the economy will improve in the future (with just 16% believing it will get worse) and 49% of the Active Enmity group thinking the same (with 20% thinking things will get worse). Conversely, 69% of Confident Multiculturalists and 68% of Mainstream Liberals think the UK economy will worsen over the next few years (with only 10% and 14% thinking it will get better). Back in February, 70% and 67% of these groups were optimistic about the future. This remarkable optimism amongst the Latent Hostiles and Active Enmity groups is mirrored in their belief that the British government will be more able to control immigration. 81% of Latent Hostiles and 83% of the Active Enmity tribe expect the government to be able to limit immigration, with just 2% and 5% respectively thinking the government will be less able to limit immigration and 17% and 12% believing that leaving the EU will make no difference. Post Brexit ability to limit immigration Expectation of national economic circumstances The divisions in society was clearly illustrated when people were asked about Britian’s future outside the EU. 85% of Latent Hostiles, 83% of the Active Enmity tribe and even 72% of the Cultrually concerned, felt Britain could thrive outside the EU and the single market. Just 27% of Confident Multiculturals and 30% of Maninstream liberals thought Britain would thrive. This newfound optimism amongst the two groups most hostile to immigration and multiculturalism is likely to be short-lived as the reality of life outside the EU begins to bite. The demographic makeup of these two groups means that they are likely to be adversely affected by job losses – especially in the manufacturing industry – and any reduction in public spending. And when the penny drops, these people are likely to get very angry and will probably take even more anti-establishment views. Enter Arron Banks, the main financier of UKIP over the last few years, and his promise to put £10 million of his own fortune into a new right wing nationalist party. It will not be difficult for Banks, a British Donald Trump, to convince them that they have been sold out yet again by the political elite rather than their own unrealistic expectations. And with the Labour Party in complete disarray, the prospects of Banks’ new party eating deeper into Labour’s heartlands in the north are both real and frightening. While Theresa May will undoubtedly experience a honeymoon period and a significant bounce in the polls, this could also well be short-lived. Negotiations with the EU will not be easy and, despite the bullish headlines of some of the media and politicians, the UK will not be entering them from a position of strength. Britain will clearly not get the deal it wants and there will be significant areas of compromise. However, our polling shows that there is little appetite for compromise amongst many of those who voted Leave. A hefty majority of Leave voters believes Britain can thrive successfully outside the EU and the single market, the probable requirement if the government is to halt free movement of labour as it has promised to do. Similarly, 57% of the Culturally Concerned, 76% of Latent Hostiles and 87% of the Active Enmity group thought leaving the single market was a price worth paying to stop unlimited EU migration into Britain. Only 17%, 7% and 5% of these three groups thought that the economic consequences of leaving the single market would be so dire that they would support continuing free movement in return for staying inside it. And there would appear little group for compromise, at the moment at least. Some politicians and business leaders have floated the possibility of a deal whereby the UK retains access to the single market in return for continuing to pay into the EU budget and accepting a limited number of EU citizens migrating to the UK each year. Quite apart from whether other EU countries will accept this – and the early indications are that they won’t – opinion is split. 41% of people said that such a compromise would be acceptable to them, whilst 40% deemed it unacceptable. A third of people thought such a deal was likely, with 49% believing it unlikely. Acceptability and likelihood of single market settlement Acceptability and likelihood of single market settlement However, amongst the three groups to the right of our tribe scale, opinion is strongly against such a compromise. Just over half (53%) of the Culturally Concerned saw it as unacceptable, compared to 39% who believed it as acceptable. Amongst Latent Hostiles this gap was 70% to 19% and amongst Active Enmity it was 67% to 13%. Pragmatic views Whilst many people clearly have strong anti-immigrant views and these are unlikely to change in the short-term, there is also a pragmatism amongst many people in the middle about immigration policy and this should give some reason for optimism.