We face local elections on Thursday. These elections only occur in England. Four years ago when the same seats were elected Labour gained 324 seats, the Tories list 235 and the Liberal Democrats lost 310..In addition UKIP won 164 seats after contesting 2.300 seats.
Mist commentators are of the opinion that the Labour Party will gain over 200 seats and the Liberal Democrats between 30 and 50..Tthe Tory loses will depend upon the fate of UKIP. Thus time they ate only defending three quarters of the seats they won four years ago. UKIP is prone to squabbles and schizoid conflict .As it it is they are only contesting 500 odd seats as they edge towards the tomb.. last year they list every dear they were defending.
London looks interesting.. Labour is 8% points up on 4 years ago and
the Tories and Lib Dems remain at 29 and 11 as they were in 2014.
Wandsworth and Westminster risk being list by the Conservstes and even
Kensington and Chelsea is threatened.
The key factor in all these elections is the fate of the UKIP vote and I suspect Windrush and the effects of the Universal Credit roll out will help Labour in key areas. These are unusual times and prefi tion becomes difficult. I suspect though at least 200 Labour gains; at least 100 Tory loses, 30 Lib Dem gains and the death of UKiP.. it's going to be an interesting night...so enjoy and reflect upon my words as I don't want to inadvertently mislead you...hehe
The key factor in all these elections is the fate of the UKIP vote and I suspect Windrush and the effects of the Universal Credit roll out will help Labour in key areas. These are unusual times and prefi tion becomes difficult. I suspect though at least 200 Labour gains; at least 100 Tory loses, 30 Lib Dem gains and the death of UKiP.. it's going to be an interesting night...so enjoy and reflect upon my words as I don't want to inadvertently mislead you...hehe
Eawlings and Thrasher have these observations to make,,,,,
"In the four short years since the seats that fall vacant at next month’s
local elections were last contested the electoral landscape in England
has changed profoundly.
Then, a Conservative-led national coalition coming to the end of its
term was looking nervously over its shoulder at the threat posed by an
insurgent Ukip.
Now, two general elections and a referendum later, Ukip seems dead in
the water and politics is dominated by the two main parties more than at
any time for over a quarter of a century.
The local elections are likely to reflect this dominance with the
Conservatives and Labour together defending over 80% of the more than
4,350 seats in 150 councils at stake in May. In London the entire
council in 32 boroughs is being elected; in most other places a third or
a half of councillors face the electorate.
Recent by-elections as well as the opinion polls show Labour and the
Conservatives neck and neck in the battle for local votes. As is usual,
the Liberal Democrats are performing better at council by-elections than
in the polls.
If this current picture continues up to the May election itself then
Labour could be on course to make about 200 gains (the majority of them
in London) with the Conservatives suffering around 75 net losses and the
Liberal Democrats perhaps picking up a couple of dozen or so extra
seats. We expect the 125 seats Ukip is defending from 2014 to be wiped
out.
London has been trending towards Labour for several years now. At the
2017 general election the party did over 13 percentage points better in
London than in Britain as a whole compared to relatively average
performances in the years up to 1997. It now needs little more than 150
net gains to match its best ever result in the capital of 1,220 seats,
registered in 1971. The Conservatives, by contrast, are within 100
losses of their worst showing of 519 seats in 1994.
Barnet LBC is the council where the Conservatives are most vulnerable on
paper, but it could be that Labour underperforms in a borough which is
home to one of the largest Jewish communities in the country. Hillingdon
LBC could also slip from the Conservatives’ grasp.
The pre-election game of expectations management is most apparent though
across the three west central boroughs of Kensington & Chelsea RBC,
Wandsworth LBC and Westminster City Council. The Conservatives are
happy to claim they may well lose all three; Labour, notably in the form
of London mayor Sadiq Khan, is dismissing the idea that the party can
break through in such traditional Conservative heartlands. Labour is
likely to make significant seat gains in these boroughs, but it would
mark a real shift in political power if it took outright control of any
of them. Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster have been Conservative
since their inception in 1964; Wandsworth since 1978.
Another, entirely different party struggle will be fought out in a trio
of affluent south-west boroughs. In both Kingston upon Thames RBC and
Richmond upon Thames LBC it is the Liberal Democrats who will be taking
the fight to the incumbent Conservatives and expecting to benefit from
support among the majority Remain electorates. In Sutton LBC, by
contrast, it is the Liberal Democrats who must defend their near 30-year
reign. A swing of 5% to the Conservatives would see them lose 18 seats
and leave control on a knife edge.
Labour controls all but six of the 36 metropolitan boroughs and that
will not change radically. Indeed the party could close in on polling
more than half of all the votes cast for the first time since 1996.
Trafford MBC may be taken directly from the Conservatives, but a hung
council is the more likely outcome. Kirklees Metropolitan Council and
Walsall MBC are also possible gains, although the party has flattered
only to deceive in both before.
Dudley MBC, on the other hand, offers a chance for the Conservatives.
Ukip won seven seats here in 2014 – six in traditionally Conservative
territory. Recovering that ground would see them drawing much closer to
Labour.
The impact of the decline of Ukip is also likely to be an important
factor in the unitary and district councils. In Plymouth City Council
Labour look well placed to regain control by winning back Ukip seats
from 2014 in three usually heartland wards. In North East Lincolnshire
Council too Labour could get close to a majority by reclaiming formerly
safe wards either from Ukip itself or from candidates elected for the
party who subsequently defected to the Conservatives.
In Thurrock Council, former Ukip councillors have formed themselves into
a new Independent grouping. They failed their first test in a recent
by-election, but the tightness of local politics was illustrated by
Labour and the Conservatives tying in that particular battle. Thurrock
will remain hung.
Although most of the second-tier districts with elections this year are
in largely urban areas, it is the Conservatives who defend most seats
and councils. And it is to Ukip again that they will be looking to pick
up formal gains from 2014 in parts of eastern England such as Basildon
and Great -Yarmouth BCs and Rochford DC.
Anything approaching a decent performance by Labour should see them take
Amber Valley BC straight from the Conservatives, but few other councils
offer the opportunity for a direct gain in control as opposed to
picking up the odd seat. In Worcester City Council, for example, Labour
needs just two gains, but in each case a swing into double figures is
required.
The Liberal Democrats defend control in four districts, with boundary
changes leading to all-out elections in two of them – Eastleigh BC and
South Lakeland DC. They should hang on in each case, but South Lakeland
will be an interesting contest given the narrowness of local MP Tim
Farron’s victory at the general election last year and his subsequent
standing down as party leader.
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats have continued to be important local
government players even as they are in the national doldrums. Maidstone
BC and St Albans City and DC are among the councils they may target for
gains as they necessarily revert back to their tactics of 30 years ago
in trying to build and spread from a limited number of target areas.
The four London mayoral contests all look shoe-ins for Labour despite
Sir Steve Bullock standing down in Lewisham LBC and Sir Robin Wales
being deselected in Newham LBC. The selection of the Labour candidate
for the inaugural Sheffield City Region elections was similarly
controversial, but for Dan Jarvis MP surely the internal party hurdle
was a bigger test than the now wider electoral one.
Another long-serving mayor not competing this year is Liberal Democrat
Dorothy Thornhill in Watford BC. She has consistently outperformed her
own party over the years, including most impressively on the day of the
2010 general election. Her potential successor – Peter Taylor – can
though take heart from the Liberal Democrats easily topping the poll at
last year’s Hertfordshire CC elections in the borough.
Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, associate members, Nuffield College, Oxford
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