Tuesday, 25 April 2017

Neath Port Talbot ...Reading the electoral runes for May 4.......

Two opinion polls published yesterday have massive implications for local government elections both in Neath Port Talbot and Swansea next week.

In 2012 Labour took in NPT seats from Plaid and the Liberal Democrats. With polls suggesting that Labour's vote is down by 9# it suggests that Plaid will take back seats in Glynneath , Bryncoch and take Labour seats in Pontardawe, Alltwen , Neath East, Rhos , Tonna and Cadoxton. The Liberal Democrats will take two Ciedfranc seats and run Labour close in Cimla. Election contests will be interesting in Neath South and Neath North.

The independent candidates are the most difficult to predict . Many of them are simply right wingers Inn disguise .Gareth Hanford that Labour will hold Resolven.
In one particular case in Resolven the independent candidate Darren Bronham Niccols is really a UKIP full time official who has been linked by two prominent Welsh blogs to an anti Welsh language campaign.

Hello kids! 

It's almost bedtime. Are you ready for a little story? 

It was a fine day when Mr Urdd went to Pen-y-Bont ar Ogwr to announce the Urdd Eisteddfod in 2017 and met a lot of very important people. 

"We're going to create a million Welsh speakers," said Uncle Carwyn. 

"I love the language," said Auntie Caroline Jones, Assembly Member UKIP, "but I do not want to see Welsh education for all children in Wales". 

Mr Urdd felt somewhat uncomfortable as he stood between Auntie and Uncle Carwyn Caroline, but gwenai everyone else from ear to ear!


And here Darren BROMHAM-Nichols works for Auntie Caroline is lovely small office in Neath. Called for tough kids!


Mr BROMHAM-Nichols like puppies, and has a strong interest in contemporary questions , such as "To what extent is racism and socialism are integral elements of fascism?": 

While I feddwl web can concede racism lower more of a subject Now and Brought to the surface more lower, none of us in the cotton Expect Slaves woking fields to a make over oes Sure we're not walking into the wrong "Whites" or "Coloureds" entrance. I Mean, I've not been a on a bus for a While ond I donΓ’ Expect they 'Still a make black People sit at the back unrhyw more ...

No, I do not understand either, children. While Mr BROMHAM-Nichols is very fond of adorable puppies, it's not like rabsgaliwns Language Society. Not at all. "They are extremists childish," said Uncle Neil Hamilton, who is a friend of Auntie Caroline. And then went Mr BROMHAM-Nichols set out to investigate the Welsh Language Society in his small office lovely. Was Uncle Carwyn give money to the bad guys here? While big disappointment Mr BROMHAM-Nichols, failed his research, but he was determined to go to war against the dregs of the old Society troubled bad. 

"The hunters yn Become the hunted", said Mr BROMHAM-Nichols. "Tally-ho, What, What!" 

And behold, popped over there was a young farmer named Dr. Bethan Jenkins. "I have decided to ban fox Language Society from giving evidence to the Committee of Culture, Welsh Language and Communication at the Chicken Hut non-democratic mandate UKIP respected", he said. 

There was Uncle Neil, Caroline and Mr BROMHAM Anti-Nichols love. "For a great decision", they said. 

Very soon after that, Uncle Neil invitation was unexpected by Labor Party members in Llangennech was eagerly want to see in the village. 

"Please contact them to arrange a trip and publicity?" Uncle Neil asked Mr BROMHAM-Nichols. In English, of course. 

And away with it. 

Mr. Nichols had a confidential conversation-BROMHAM, entertaining with his new friends in the Llanelli area as part of a private group on Facebook. 


But unfortunately, some wily old fox was eavesdropping, and it all came out in a series of tweets. 

There was bickering and chlegar deafening stage in old house Labor Party, and feathering flying everywhere. "Not my fault," said Mr. Waters, and all but the Kippers angry terrible. 

Well, that's a strange story! 

His endorsement of right wing economics and love of austerity will be of much interest. However if the polls are to be believed this may not be a problem. Darren however while perhaps appreciating style has little substance and I have a £ 10 bet with

In Seven Sisters the Leader of the Steve Hunt political party will hold the seat. His rag bag party of assorted kippers, crypto nationalists and odd bods will have very little impact.
In Port Talbot Nathan and Baglan will prove interesting.it is possible that Labour may lose up to 15 seats. New comers to the council will include Paul Sambrook who offers much to the future.both in his political understanding and in the ability he has to liberate Neath East from the Shield Penry junta. In Godre Graig I hope that Plaid have educated it's sitting Councillor Davies on the realities of fracking and what drilling by fracking companies is really about. It would be a pity if Andy Jenkins of Neath South loses his seat..However this could well be a marginal seat.

Labour in Neath is a curious creature.its largely about power and is a party if the establishment. Many join it to get on and yet it's conservative in nature and right wing in thinking.Corbyn and momentum has not come to NPT. It is entirely feasible to imagine Labour losing overall control of the council and one could go further and imagine Alun Llewelyn running Labour close on June 8th or even taking the Parliamentary seat of Neath by a few hundred.

The hapless Steven Kinnock will record the lowest Labour vote in loving memory in Aberafan and the turnout will be the lowest ever seen in 100 years.Labours majority over Plaid will be as low as 3000.

Labour is going to get a bloody nose on May 4 the problem is that we will all get a bloody nose on June 8th if the Tories win. The inheritance of Brexits and a Tory majority will be a vile toxic one. Wales will become the last colony of an English Casino state on the fringe of Europe. We are in need of Jeremy Corbyn and Caroline Lucas and Ecosocialism more than ever. But Welsh Labour has little to do with Corbyn and the Greens and Plaid in Wales have much work to do.Brexit gives London the chance to grab power that should come to Wales. A vast Tory majority threatens devolution and the future of the oppressed and vulnerable who voted for Brexit.its going to be a long hot political summer...

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