Monday, 24 April 2017

The French Fifth Republic falls apart .....apres moi le deluge



And so the French Fifth Republic emerges without the two major parties of that Republic in the second round of the Presidential poll. It's clear that Marine Lepen will not win and that Macron is the next French President. An alternative left based around Mellanchron will emerge but the real question will be who will be the largest party in the National Assembly ? The front National will be there as will the alternative left. But what of the old Socialist Party and how organised will Macrons new party be ? And indeed what of the republican right. It could feasibly argued that the Front Nationale could've the largest party. A Macron victory will extend Brexit negotiations. Imagine a country with Nick Clegg as President and the Kippers as the largest party. Perhaps also consider the Weimar republic where the left were the opposition to the Nazis . Consider the possibilities but note the old parties continue to fall apart. The new paradigm knocks at the door...Will it be of the authoritarian right or the populist left...The answer is still unclear but this is not good news for Theresa May's red, white and blue Brexit....It's going to be interesting ....


In France we find a nationalist inward looking candidate facing a candidate commuted to the views of the globalised liberal elite. There is no wonder that Melanchon refuses to tell his supporters how to vote. Both have a repulsive feel. Lepen for her prejudice and the smell of Vichy and Macron for the denial of the 99% and of the implications of the globalised world view. However a Macron Presidency has serious effects for Theresa May and her Brexit strategy. It's now clear that Wilders was stopped in Holland and Lepen has been stopped in France. The EU will change but it will not fall apart. The tide of authoritarian populism has been stemmed , we see the decline of UKIP here, we see the Trump movement stall in the USA, In the UK we are still waiting for the judgement of the electorate. The polls point to a Tory landslide but there is over six weeks to go. But whatever the result is it is clear that the media is obsessed with some solutions to vast and complex questions. Caroline Lucas and Jeremy Corbyn do their best to correct the problem and yet most people fail to realise that simple answers never created a rich life for anyone. Complexity is the stuff of life . Simple answers belong to the world of 1984, the ethos of UKIP and the Tory Party. Sadly i see no signs of this universal truth of depth, complexity and subtlety catching on or being realised. The personal is truly political ...Perhaps the narrow mind is afraid of such realisations......

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